Officials briefed on the matter described productivity gains as a turning point that few analysts had penciled in even a quarter earlier, citing shifts in carbon markets and a recalibration of expectations across Southern Africa.

Markets responded in measured fashion. Traders pointed to productivity gains as the principal catalyst, though strategists at three large banks cautioned that the underlying dynamics in carbon markets remain unsettled.

Behind the headline figures, a more nuanced picture is emerging. Practitioners closest to productivity gains say the conversation has quietly turned toward carbon markets, a shift that would have been unthinkable as recently as last winter.

Critics argue the response has been too cautious. Supporters counter that any move on productivity gains must be weighed against the still-fragile recovery in carbon markets, particularly across Southern Africa.

The longer arc is harder to read. For now, productivity gains appears to be reshaping the calculus around carbon markets, and few of the people interviewed for this piece expected that recalibration to reverse before year-end.