Officials briefed on the matter described semiconductor capacity as a turning point that few analysts had penciled in even a quarter earlier, citing shifts in carbon markets and a recalibration of expectations across Southern Africa.

Markets responded in measured fashion. Traders pointed to semiconductor capacity as the principal catalyst, though strategists at three large banks cautioned that the underlying dynamics in carbon markets remain unsettled.

Behind the headline figures, a more nuanced picture is emerging. Practitioners closest to semiconductor capacity say the conversation has quietly turned toward carbon markets, a shift that would have been unthinkable as recently as last winter.

Critics argue the response has been too cautious. Supporters counter that any move on semiconductor capacity must be weighed against the still-fragile recovery in carbon markets, particularly across Southern Africa.

The longer arc is harder to read. For now, semiconductor capacity appears to be reshaping the calculus around carbon markets, and few of the people interviewed for this piece expected that recalibration to reverse before year-end.