Officials briefed on the matter described border talks as a turning point that few analysts had penciled in even a quarter earlier, citing shifts in supply chains and a recalibration of expectations across the Atlantic.

Markets responded in measured fashion. Traders pointed to border talks as the principal catalyst, though strategists at three large banks cautioned that the underlying dynamics in supply chains remain unsettled.

Behind the headline figures, a more nuanced picture is emerging. Practitioners closest to border talks say the conversation has quietly turned toward supply chains, a shift that would have been unthinkable as recently as last winter.

Critics argue the response has been too cautious. Supporters counter that any move on border talks must be weighed against the still-fragile recovery in supply chains, particularly across the Atlantic.

The longer arc is harder to read. For now, border talks appears to be reshaping the calculus around supply chains, and few of the people interviewed for this piece expected that recalibration to reverse before year-end.